美国旧金山加州大学Tice等报告，在乳腺癌预测模型中加入乳腺密度，能评估浸润性乳腺癌5年危险，但鉴别哪些女性将罹患乳腺癌时，该模型仅有中等准确性。相关论文发表在《内科学文献》（Annals of Internal Medicine）上。
该模型结合了乳腺密度和某些临床因素(如乳腺癌家族史、既往乳腺活检史)。高乳腺密度是乳腺癌预测因素，可通过常规乳腺X线摄影检查获得。为了制定和验证该模型，研究者分析了1095484例乳腺X线摄影筛查病例资料。所有参加筛查的女性继往均未被诊断为乳腺癌。
在5.3年随访期间，14766名女性发生浸润性乳腺癌。乳腺密度模型在所有女性(期望/实测比为1.03)和各种族、民族亚群中均能较好地标定乳腺癌危险。年龄在65岁以下、无乳腺癌家族史、低乳腺密度的女性，5年乳腺癌危险低于1.67%。但是，该模型鉴别可能和不会罹患乳腺癌者仅具有中等准确性(一致性指数为0.66)。若要将该模型用于临床，尚须在其他群体中进一步评价其准确性。（来源：中国医学论坛报 晓新）
生物谷推荐原始出处：
（Annals of Internal Medicine），4 March 2008 | Volume 148 Issue 5 | Pages 337-347，Jeffrey A. Tice, Karla Kerlikowske
Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model
Jeffrey A. Tice, MD; Steven R. Cummings, MD; Rebecca Smith-Bindman, MD; Laura Ichikawa, MS; William E. Barlow, PhD; and Karla Kerlikowske, MD
Background: Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography.
Objective: To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density.
Design: Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort.
Setting: Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.
Patients: 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer.
Measurements: Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories.
Results: During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years.
