由于盗猎猖獗，大象正面临着灭绝的威胁，科学家们预测如果不采取有力的措施来控制这种行为，大象将于2020年从地球上消失。
8月，最新出版的《保护生物学》上刊登了美国华盛顿大学生物教授塞缪尔·瓦塞尔（Samuel Wasser）的一篇文章。在这篇文章中，塞缪尔教授指出，在上个世纪八十年代，由于非法象牙贸易猖獗，非洲野生大象濒于灭绝。联合国因此于1989年通过决议，在全球范围内禁止一切象牙贸易活动。不过盗猎大象的行为并没有因此停止，反而更加猖獗。根据最新公布的一份调查数据显示，目前在非洲，每年大约有8%的大象成为盗猎者的牺牲品。这个比例比20年前实施禁猎措施时的7.4%还要高。塞缪尔教授说，更为严重的是，20年前的比例是基于100万头大象得出来的数据，而如今8%这个数据是基于47万头大象计算出来的结果。如果人们不采取有力的措施来控制这种行为，到2020年野生大象将从地球上消失。
塞缪尔教授指出，之所以出现这种情况，一方面是由于象牙需求量急剧上升使得盗猎者为谋求巨额利润而疯狂猎杀大象，另一方面是由于相关政府对盗猎大象行为采取了容忍的态度。目前，以日本为首的亚洲市场对象牙的需求量非常旺盛，其次就是美国。非法象牙贸易在这些地方非常猖獗，巨大的利润使得许多盗猎者不惜铤而走险疯狂的猎杀大象。而象牙作为一项高利润 、低风险的产业，给许多非洲国家带来了巨额的财政收入，所以有些国家政府对盗猎大象的行为采取了容忍的态度。
塞缪尔教授表示，要保护大象最有效的办法的是切断非法象牙贸易的源头，其次各国要采取有力的措施来打击盗猎大象的行为。塞缪尔和他的研究小组开发出一种技术，可以通过检测象牙的DNA来判断这些象牙来自何处。塞缪尔教授说，目前非法象牙贸易一个最主要的特点就是象牙盗取地和交易地点不一样，他说这样做是盗猎者为了躲避法律的惩罚。举例来说，2002年在新加坡截获的6.5吨非法象牙是从马拉维出口的，而DNA检测技术却显示这批大象是来自赞比亚。因此，要阻止日益猖獗的非法象牙贸易就要从源头上切断它，当然最重要的是当地政府能积极采取有效措施打击这种行为。
塞缪尔教授指出，大象体型庞大，有80个人的重量，但它们的视力却很弱，只能看清100米以内的景物，所以它对其他动物及人类没有很大的威胁性，反而成了人类捕杀的对象。野生大象寿命有70年，但现在许多大象却因食物的缺乏，栖息地的破坏，寿命减少到了15年，再加上人类的疯狂猎杀，大象的生存状况已经恶劣了，人们对此要有清醒的认识。否则到了2020年，除了圈养在笼子里的大象之外，我们再也看不到野生的大象了。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推荐原始出处：
Conservation Biology，Volume 22 Issue 4, Pages 1065 - 1071，SAMUEL K. WASSER, MATTHEW STEPHENS
Combating the Illegal Trade in African Elephant Ivory with DNA Forensics
Abstract: International wildlife crime is burgeoning in this climate of global trade. We contend that the most effective way to contain this illegal trade is to determine where the wildlife is being removed. This allows authorities to direct law enforcement to poaching hot spots, potentially stops trade before the wildlife is actually killed, prevents countries from denying their poaching problems at home, and thwarts trade before it enters into an increasingly complex web of international criminal activity. Forensic tools have been limited in their ability to determine product origin because the information they can provide typically begins only at the point of shipment. DNA assignment analyses can determine product origin, but its use has been limited by the inability to assign samples to locations where reference samples do not exist. We applied new DNA assignment methods that can determine the geographic origin(s) of wildlife products from anywhere within its range. We used these methods to examine the geographic origin(s) of 2 strings of seizures involving large volumes of elephant ivory, 1 string seized in Singapore and Malawi and the other in Hong Kong and Cameroon. These ivory traffickers may comprise 2 of the largest poaching rings in Africa. In both cases all ivory seized in the string had common origins, which indicates that crime syndicates are targeting specific populations for intense exploitation. This result contradicts the dominant belief that dealers are using a decentralized plan of procuring ivory stocks as they became available across Africa. Large quantities of ivory were then moved, in multiple shipments, through an intermediate country prior to shipment to Asia, as a risk-reduction strategy that distances the dealer from the poaching locale. These smuggling strategies could not have been detected by forensic information, which typically begins only at the shipping source.
