据2月6日的《科学》杂志报道说，研究人员已经通过应用气候的历史纪录来模拟进化过程并研发出了一种预报生物多样性热区的方法。这种方法能够为人们提供资讯并对未来的自然资源保护管理措施有所助益。
Ana Carnaval及其同僚将这种预测方法应用于巴西的大西洋雨林，它是地球上最具生物多样性的地区。他们用的是在所有雨林中都很常见的3种树蛙的mtDNA（即线粒体DNA）序列，他们应用了系统发生和回溯分析来发现诸如它们的遗传多样性、距离隔离、地区内和地区间的分化等情况。这时，一幅该种蛙类的进化史的图片就开始浮现出来。
研究人员观察到，该雨林某些地区在整个冰川期的消长过程中仍然保持稳定的生物多样性，而其它有些地区仅仅是在近至晚更新世时才被植入生物物种的。他们得出结论：大多数的保护措施聚焦于该雨林的南部地区，但其中部地区却一直是生物的庇护所，而且它比自然资源保护学家所意识到的生物多样性要多得多。而且，由于巴西大西洋雨林的中部地区与南部地区相比经历了更高速率的森林采伐，因此研究人员警告说，许多独特的生物多元性可能会在那里丧失，而正在发生的生物栖息地的破坏会迅速消抹掉这一预测方法所需要的生物学特征标志，从而进一步阻碍未来保护措施的实施。多年以来，巴西大西洋雨林已经缩小至不到其原先地理分布的8%。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推荐原始出处：
Science 6 February 2009:DOI: 10.1126/science.1166955
Stability Predicts Genetic Diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Hotspot
Ana Carolina Carnaval,1* Michael J. Hickerson,2 Célio F. B. Haddad,3 Miguel T. Rodrigues,4 Craig Moritz1
Biodiversity hotspots, representing regions with high species endemism and conservation threat, have been mapped globally. Yet, biodiversity distribution data from within hotspots are too sparse for effective conservation in the face of rapid environmental change. Using frogs as indicators, ecological niche models under paleoclimates, and simultaneous Bayesian analyses of multispecies molecular data, we compare alternative hypotheses of assemblage-scale response to late Quaternary climate change. This reveals a hotspot within the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. We show that the southern Atlantic forest was climatically unstable relative to the central region, which served as a large climatic refugium for neotropical species in the late Pleistocene. This sets new priorities for conservation in Brazil and establishes a validated approach to biodiversity prediction in other understudied, species-rich regions.
1 Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3160, USA.
2 Biology Department, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367, USA.
3 Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biociências, UNESP, Rio Claro, SP 3526-4100, Brazil.
4 Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de S?o Paulo, SP 055008-090, Brazil.
