通过气候模拟分析，研究人员指出，在21世纪的进程中，格陵兰岛和南极州冰原周围的海洋亚表面温度将分别升高 1.7℃~2℃和0.5℃~0.6℃，这种变暖趋向将导致冰原的大量融化、海平面的升高，新成果发表在7月在线出版的《自然—地球科学》期刊上。
Jianjun Yin和同事利用19个基于中等排放水平的全新气候模式，模拟了21世纪的气候变化。他们发现在海洋下200米~500米深处之间，环绕两个冰川的海洋温度的变暖程度将大大超过目前的温度变化。
他们的模拟结果显示，格陵兰岛周围海洋的变暖程度将是全球平均水平的两倍，而南极洲附近海洋变暖程度只有全球平均水平的一半。(生物谷 Bioon.com)
doi:10.1038/ngeo1189
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Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica
Jianjun Yin; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Stephen M. Griffies; Aixue Hu; Joellen L. Russell; Ronald J. Stouffer
The observed acceleration of outlet glaciers and ice flows in Greenland and Antarctica is closely linked to ocean warming, especially in the subsurface layer1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Accurate projections of ice-sheet dynamics and global sea-level rise therefore require information of future ocean warming in the vicinity of the large ice sheets. Here we use a set of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to quantify this ocean warming in the next two centuries. We find that in response to a mid-range increase in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, the subsurface oceans surrounding the two polar ice sheets at depths of 200–500 m warm substantially compared with the observed changes thus far6, 7, 8. Model projections suggest that over the course of the twenty-first century, the maximum ocean warming around Greenland will be almost double the global mean, with a magnitude of 1.7–2.0 °C. By contrast, ocean warming around Antarctica will be only about half as large as global mean warming, with a magnitude of 0.5–0.6 °C. A more detailed evaluation indicates that ocean warming is controlled by different mechanisms around Greenland and Antarctica. We conclude that projected subsurface ocean warming could drive significant increases in ice-mass loss, and heighten the risk of future large sea-level rise.
