在当今全球范围环境变化的形势下，濒危野生动物种群能否持续生存是保护生物学的关键问题之一。普氏原羚是全球最濒危的野生动物之一。近100多年来，由于受人为猎杀、栖息地破碎化和丧失等因素的影响，普氏原羚已知残留种群仅分布在环青海湖地区，且种群数量极为有限。
中国科学院成都生物研究所系统进化与保育学科组胡军华博士与中国科学院动物研究所蒋志刚研究员、英国曼彻斯特城市大学David P. Mallon教授等合作，通过模拟普氏原羚种群动态发现，如果其生存现状得不到有效的改善，部分亚种群会面临很大的灭绝风险。他们建议有效控制普氏原羚分布区内的人类活动，增加其栖息地连接度，并建立有效的人工繁育种群等。
该研究结果近期发表于国际保护生物学期刊Biological Conservation。
此项研究受国家自然科学基金、中国科学院知识创新工程项目等资助。（生物谷Bioon.com）
doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.06.011
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Metapopulation viability of a globally endangered gazelle on the Northeast Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Junhua Hua, b, Zhigang Jiangb, , , David P. Mallonc, d
Conservationists are far from able to assist all species threatened by extinction. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is often used to guide decisions about the management of threatened species. Using the updated Vortex package, we carried out a PVA for Przewalski’s gazelle Procapra przewalskii, a globally endangered gazelle and conservation focus on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, based on the extensive field surveys between 1994 and 2008 on the nine existing subpopulations (i.e., Yuanzhe, Hudong, Ketu, Shadao, Ganzihe, Haergai, Bird Island, Tianjun and Gonghe). Population size varied largely across subpopulations during the simulation. The nine subpopulations faced two distinct fates within the next 200 years: two will likely survive while the other seven appeared likely to go extinct. The average probability of extinction (PE) of subpopulations was 97.1%, with the mean time to extinction 66.7 years. The metapopulation will most likely decrease in size, but could persist. The number of offspring per adult female per year (OFY), the sex ratio, and the mortality of young females will seemingly play important roles in determining persistence, as will carrying capacity and inbreeding depression to be a lesser degree. The projected size and extinction rates for the subpopulations responded differently to variation in population parameters, with the highest sensitivity in Haergai. OFY was the most important demographic parameter for explaining variation in population size. These findings advance our understanding of how to mitigate extinction risks for the endangered Przewalski’s gazelle and provide useful insights for its conservation that may also be applicable to other large ungulates.
