一项研究发现，气候变对温度和降水量的变化的影响很可能对传播西尼罗河病毒（WNV）的蚊子产生广泛的影响，这提示控制这种病毒的公共卫生举措需要采取地方性的而非全球性的视角。Cory Morin 和Andrew C. Comrie使用一个气候驱动的蚊子种群模型模拟了美国南部一种已知能够传播西尼罗河病毒（WNV）的蚊子的丰富程度。这组作者发现，在气候变化模型预测的未来气候条件下，许多地方估计将会遇到有蚊子的季节的延长，但是干燥的环境和极端温度下蚊子死亡率的增加会导致夏季蚊子种群的减少。然而，这些变化根据地方温度和降水量而有显著的不同。例如，夏季蚊子种群减少在南方将最严重，但是在较北的地区这种减少几乎不存在，在北方，更温和的温度和充足的雨会帮助维持蚊子的栖息地。这组作者说，这些发现提示设计用于控制病媒蚊子种群的研究必须有地区针对性才能让研究的效力最大化。（生物谷 Bioon.com）
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PNAS doi: 10.1073/pnas.1307135110
Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change
Cory W. Morin and Andrew C. Comrie
Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.
