人们通常认为，经济越繁荣，老年人口死亡率越低。但一份研究发现，在发达国家，老年人死亡率在经济发展较快时期反而升高。
法新社10月7日报道，英国《流行病和公共卫生杂志》刊登的一项研究结果显示，在一些发达国家，国内生产总值每增长一个百分点，70至74岁男性人群死亡率升高0.36％，同一年龄段女性人群死亡率升高0.18％。
在40至45岁人群中，男性和女性死亡率在经济增长情况下分别升高0.38％和0.16％。
研究人员分析19个发达国家1950年至2008年期间的人口死亡率和经济增长率后得出上述数据。这19个国家包括美国、日本、澳大利亚、新西兰和多个欧洲国家。
报告说：“研究发现，失业率升高或国内生产总值下降与低死亡率相关联。”
荷兰莱顿生命力和老化学院研究人员赫伯特·罗尔登说，这项研究结果“非常出人意料”，“我们还不清楚这种关联的真正原因”。
对年轻人而言，经济繁荣时期死亡率高或许能够归因于工作压力大和交通事故发生率高。但罗尔登认为，这种解释不适用于退休老人。
一种未经证实的猜测认为，经济繁荣时期年轻人可能因工作繁忙而无暇照顾老人，这种社会结构变化可能推升老年人死亡率。另一种观点认为，经济发展可能伴随空气污染等环境问题，影响老年人健康。（生物谷Bioon.com）
生物谷推荐的英文摘要
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health doi:10.1136/jech-2013-202544
Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles
Herbert J A Rolden1， David van Bodegom1，2， Wilbert B van den Hout2， Rudi G J Westendorp1，2
Background As mortality is more and more concentrated at old age， it becomes critical to identify the determinants of old age mortality. It has counter-intuitively been found that mortality rates at all ages are higher during short-term increases in economic growth. Work-stress is found to be a contributing factor to this association， but cannot explain the association for the older， retired population.
Methods Historical figures of gross domestic product (Angus Maddison) were compared with mortality rates (Human Mortality Database) of middle aged (40–44years) and older people (70–74years) in 19 developed countries for the period 1950–2008. Regressions were performed on the de-trended data， accounting for autocorrelation and aggregated using random effects models.
Results Most countries show pro-cyclical associations between the economy and mortality， especially with regard to male mortality rates. On average， for every 1% increase in gross domestic product， mortality increases with 0.36% for 70-year-old to 74-year-old men (p<0.001) and 0.38% for 40-year-old to 44-year-old men (p<0.001). The effect for women is 0.18% for 70-year-olds to 74-year-olds (p=0.012) and 0.15% for 40-year-olds to 44-year-olds (p=0.118).
Conclusions In developed countries， mortality rates increase during upward cycles in the economy， and decrease during downward cycles. This effect is similar for the older and middle-aged population. Traditional explanations as work-stress and traffic accidents cannot explain our findings. Lower levels of social support and informal care by the working population during good economic times can play an important role， but this remains to be formally investigated.
